In contrast to the numbers in today’s IPA Bellwether report, the analyst Forrester is predicting a positive outlook for mobile, forecasting that mobile ad spend will increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.9 per cent through 2022, rising from €19.3bn (£17.2bn) in 2017 to €40.3 billion in 2022, when it will account for 70 per cent of digital advertising spend by 2022. The forecast looks at mobile ad spend across seven countries in the region: the UK, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Italy, Spain, and Sweden.

According to Forrester’s figures, search continues to lead mobile ad spend in the EU-7, accounting for almost half of total mobile ad spend in 2017. Although its share will erode slightly through 2022, it will remain the dominant mobile ad channel as spending continues to grow at a healthy double-digit CAGR, fuelled by growth in ad click volume and cost-per-click.

At the same time, mobile social ad spend will also benefit as mobile and social media become increasingly interlinked. Forrester expects mobile will constitute the majority of social ad spend by 2022 with video playing a crucial role in driving this growth. However, even though the share of social that is mobile is the highest of any channel, mobile social ad spend will continue to play second fiddle to mobile search in the EU-7, whereas in the US it will take the lead in 2019.

“As the segment with the largest share of ad revenue that is mobile, social has the most to gain, relatively speaking, from the continued evolution of mobile computing,” said Forrester analyst Brandon Verblow. “With improved device performance, increasing screen sizes, and cheaper cellular connectivity, mobile will deliver better experiences to consumers and continue to gain digital time share. Mobile will also benefit from emerging technologies like virtual reality and augmented reality which will allow for deeper engagement with mobile devices.”